Did you know that Ghana defaulted on its debt last month? An article in The Guardian titled “Hedge funds holding up vital debt relief for crisis-hit Sri Lanka, warn economists” reminded me that the recession has in many places already arrived. When it comes to economic trouble, western media tends to focus on the US and Europe. What is the Federal Reserve doing now? Will they raise interest rates .75 or .
The news love talking about the US housing market at the moment. The housing market enters an awkward phase or recession territory. An Ex-Trump advisor is nervous about it. Even the rich offload luxury real estate in Miami and San Francisco. Apart from home prices, analysts mention things like inventory levels, mortgage rates, long-term interest rates, housing starts, and more. So what are all those numbers, and where do they come from?
In the UK there is currently a contest for leadership of the Tory party, and because they’re the party in power, by extension the country. Naturally, many candidates are promising tax cuts that no one bothered to think how they’d be funded. So that’s why it was fun to see this headline: Next Tory leader has room to make £60bn in tax cuts, say economists in the Telegraph. The article itself is behind a paywall, but nevermind because let’s look directly at what the “economists” said.
Today, I was reading a piece by John Tammy in Forbes about why the Fed won’t cause a recession. It wasn’t very re-assuring: […] governments can’t cause recessions given the more important truth that actual recessions paradoxically signal economic recovery. What governments cause is economic slowdowns born of barriers to production. The difference between the two is Pacific Ocean wide. So … the government can’t cause a recession—but it can kill the economy.
How to prepare for a recession? There is a million articless out there with a laundry list of generic tips that basically boil down to this: pay down your credit card (reduce debt) buy the budget shampoo (save money) have emergency fund / don’t get fired (doh, really) That super generic stuff is not all that helpful. So, it was fun reading a more specific article by Ann Kaplan on CNBC today.
In today’s CNBC article titled “The 4 most ‘recession-proof’ industries to work in, according to economists” we read that “certain industries tend to fare worse than others during a downturn”. Wow, well, that’s promising, right? A list of jobs or businesses to avoid, and others to pursue. (For the United States, presumably.) Fantastic premise! But then… But then the article continues: During the Great Recession, which lasted from 2007 to 2009, the construction and manufacturing sectors experienced sizable dips in employment, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Interesting article about private labels (those store branded generica for all the basic items, from cookies to dish washing liquid). As the article hints at, this current downturn makes people more price sensitive—and that’s a major driving force towards these private label products: Over 45% of customers buy private brands because of pricing, followed by availability, quality and taste. And more than 41% of customers bought more private label brands recently than before the pandemic.
Good point by the Detroit cheer leaders today: car makers in the US might weather a recession okay right now. How come? In short Recessions are problems of too low demand—and problems that get worse There is a huge shortage of cars right now—that’s a supply problem Waiting lists and high profits mean that car manufacturers have a good buffer When the pandemic started and governments started locking things down, many people were stuck at home and held back on spending.
Read an interesting blog post the other day about opportunities ahead in the so-called Creator Economy. Ayush, a writer & soloepreneur isn’t too worried about the recession. Instead he’s come up with a list of ideas that he wants to explore / business he wants to start, recession or not. Things he wants to dig into: offering a writing course (cuz writing is a marketable freelancing skill) making freelancer job board paid newsletter about entrepeneurship few more See the pattern?
When some expert announces fears of a recession you can be sure that within five minutes another expert will share advice on how to keep your retirement save. Today, too! The tips are often very similar but one advice is often particularly hard to swallow. It goes something like this: “Uh, you want to retire or have just retired during a recession? Might be a good idea to pick up a part-time job.